The Result : Recession - Just filling holes or stimulus?

Ideal solutions within complexity and uncertainty get stuck on paper because they require the support from the very system that opposes change! Since they are “ideal” they remain a priority for years with incessant discussions and innumerable studies. The extended elapse of time allows NEW COMPLEXITIES to ingress. Gradually and inevitably we witness that any attempt to implement IDEAL and LOGICAL solutions creates conflict.

(The paradox of politics and special interest)

The developed World has over the last few decades created debt based economies, where wealth is measured in terms of consumption not savings and old norms of wealth valuation. In a depression/recession large funds can be used as stimulus or bail out their economy. The key reason is justified by Keynesian belief that “sentiment and expectations are the key to recovery”. While this is perhaps necessary, the “current economic collapse” has been created by a system that trades on non existent assets, products and commodities based on minimal safety margins using with ever increasing leverages in the last decade. When a “derivative” market collapses by even 20% THAT value is manifold of capital available and hence the SIZE OF THE HOLE can be huge. INVESTING tax payer money to fill holes cannot create a recovery.

THE FIRST need is to arrest the sliding avalanche and try and reverse sentiment. Perhaps the first 350 billion should have done that or was it just used to exaggerated FILL HOLES created by over trading and avarice??

THE SECOND is to closely monitor and identify WHICH are the segments WHERE the slide has been arrested and WHERE can jobs be created?

THE THIRD is to then invest in the segments where demand can be created and lost JOBS absorbed again. The stimulus funds must invest to PUSH UP the segments NOT help them survive a few weeks before they close up anyway.

Perhaps the developed economies can afford trial and error models that cost Trillions BUT India and the developing World do not have the resources to waste or erode National wealth for a potential failure.

INDIA ' s principal handicap is different and paradoxically our Government management systems are UNABLE to get returns from any “investment or stimulus package that may be intended for the needy”. We have a faulty “delivery system” that always FAILS to deliver a JUST distribution of any FISCAL relief.

Our response to crises, emergency and disaster relief have always been POOR compared to most democracies. Corruption has pervaded and perfected “their own system” which insures that in the best case not more than 15% of any budget will reach the intended beneficiary. This cannot be changed by catching a few corrupt individuals because the “system design has been created” for another to take the previous ones place!!

THIS HAS REMAINED OUR COMPLEXITY BASED CHALLENGE and has failed to help our disadvantaged citizens time and time again. This similar to the “supply chain” inefficiencies that plague our economy.

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