CUCU World :: Centre for Understanding Complexity & Uncertainty

Chaos follows a forecastable pattern- Individuals within society behave like Molecules in matter?

When any matter or mass (Gas, Liquid or Solid) is subjected to an input such as say heat – then the behavior of the molecules is patterned as convectional currents created by the heat INPUT are well defined. In this example we consider water being heated. When heated there is a rotational or patterned radiation that enables the continuous and even spread of the INPUT (heat).

ALL the molecules that are being HEATED within the MASS accept & absorb the increasing input in an orderly manner TILL A POINT! ONCE the water molecules have attained an “equality of temperature” – then the orderly patterns cease.

Boiling and conversion to steam would be the next occurrence if we continue with the same input (more heat). We consider the NEXT STATE (boiling) to be “chaotic” – only because there is no recognizable pattern within this NEW volatility.

We should first take this example and confirm that CHAOS is a NATURAL & TIMED EVENT BASED ON REPETITIVE INPUTS. The behavior is NOT recognized ONLY because of its deviation from past behavior.

We should also accept that MOST constituents (like water molecules) within a mass will behave in a patterned, orderly and forecast able manner when first subjected to new inputs (heat) THE PATTERNED BEHAVIOR OF MOLECULES CAN BE FORECASTED AS LONG AS THE INPUT HAS A SUFFICIENT ENERGY DIFFERENTIAL. This order will continue till the INPUT has sufficient energy differential; and till the MOLECULES are UNEQUAL to this energy.

ONCE THEY EQUALIZE (in this case temperature) then the continued use of the SAME INPUT (heat) causes what we perceive to be CHAOS ( boiling)

NOW If were to SUBSTITUTE WATER as above and consider an INDIVIDUAL or SOCIETY as the MEDIUM and CONSITUENT then our NORMS, CUSTOMS, EDUCATION and LAWS could be visualized to be the various INPUTS (like heat in the above example)

The socio-economic response of individuals and society as a whole is similar to the orderly behavior of molecules and matter when subjected to a NEW INPUT which is sustained TILL A TIPPING POINT.

Most Constituents can therefore receive a defined or measurable INPUT that they continue to absorb and maintain a patterned OUTPUT. They appear to RETAIN their original character till a certain LIMIT . While they ABSORB INPUTS in an orderly and forecast able manner, some internal CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE EVEN THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE. AT THE TIPPING POINT their behavior suddenly alters and they start to change their form which is perceived by us to be “chaotic”

• Scientifically however – this CHAOS is a necessary transition, before any matter can change its form - from solid to liquid, or liquid to Gas, Gas to ignition and so on.

• CHAOS in our society must also be seen to be an inevitable transition before the constituents can evolve to the NEXT recognizable & orderly form.

• We should be able to forecast or be prepared for CHAOS if we consider it to be the “ inevitable & sequential transition” when we continue with a sustained and repetitive delivery of THE SAME INPUT or RESOURCE!

• WE CAN THEREFORE CONTROL CHAOS. Chaos can be delayed or prevented IF THE REPETITIVE INPUT IS CHANGED, REDUCED or REMOVED! (Taking our example, IF heat is shut off, reduced or changed then boiling can be averted)

• We could say that as and when SOCIETY & INDIVIDUALS start to attain “equality” – unrest starts and progresses to chaos as the NEXT likely state. IF there is no change in INPUT, then this could lead to the next evolution!

• CHAOS can therefore be forecasted IF WE HAD an indicator of approaching “equalization”.

• Could “chaos” be that state WHEN all forces are actually integrating and therefore in a un-patterned harmony?

We need to change our perception that Chaos is just random DISORDER. To sum up:

CHAOS IS A SELF CREATED STATE based on our INPUTS.
CHAOS can be controlled and has multiple options and directions.
CHAOS can be a point of EQUALIZATION, TRANSITION, and/or INTEGRATION.
CHAOS could be the stage when all these forces merge and coincide as the transition to the NEXT STATE OF EVOLUTION.

When making any attempt to forecast or measure the “duration” of any socio economic chaos, the length of non-linear activity can be CORELATED and seen to be dependent on the repetitive continuation of the same inputs.

We need skills that can recognize the indicators that show the SATURATION LIMIT FOR OLD INPUTS, and then CHAOS COULD BE reduced, replaced or removed. WE could also control or determine the DURATION of an existing “chaotic or non-linear” state.

One of the indicators of impending chaos is the “recurring paradox that would reveal the Relative Saturation within each INPUT and specifically the ONE that would most likely create the chaos.